‘Daunting, yet beautiful’ world of climate modelling inspires Schulich researcher

Nature’s unpredictability has an “inherent beauty” in the eyes of Dr. Simon Michael Papalexiou.

His fascination with the randomness and challenges have led to a research career focusing on hydroclimatic variability and extremes, and – in essence, predicting the unpredictable.

An associate professor in the Department of Civil Engineering at the University of Calgary’s Schulich School of Engineering, Papalexiou, PhD, is being recognized for his work with the American Geophysical Union (AGU) Natural Hazards Early Career Award.

The award is given out annually to recognize significant early career contributions to natural hazards science by a scientist within 10 years of receiving their PhD or highest terminal degree.

“Receiving this award is both an honour and a reassuring pat on the back, encouraging me to keep pushing forward,” says Papalexiou, who received his doctorate from the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA), Greece. “It’s a meaningful reminder that my work matters. At the same time, it’s humbling to realize that science is a collective journey, where each of us adds just a small piece to an endless puzzle.”

He says he’s grateful to his collaborators and students, who have made all the work possible, as well to the AGU and his nominators for bringing his name forward.

Award winners will be recognized at AGU24 in Washington, D.C., running Dec. 9-13.

A plethora of data

Papalexiou says the Earth and its inhabitants have been evolving alongside hydroclimatic hazards for millennia.

From localized floods to widespread droughts, the unpredictable impact can be devastating.

Papalexiou says we now have access to so much data and historical records, it’s now possible to look at short- and long-term patterns to determine probabilities and make projections.

“The huge complexity of modelling these phenomena and their uncertainty is daunting, yet beautiful,” he says. 

“This unpredictability is a challenge, but it also inspires me to make models of these forces of nature.”

Taking all of this information and delivering it in a way that people easily understand it becomes the challenge.

Conveying a climate message

The development of advanced space-time stochastic models, downscaling schemes and climate-change diagnostics has led Papalexiou to author more than 86 articles in leading journals since 2006.

He’s become renowned for his scholarship, international recognition and key contributions to hazard risk assessment and modelling uncertainty in natural processes, leading to his making presentations at more than 100 conferences. 

Papalexiou hopes his work equips decision-makers with better tools to anticipate and mitigate the challenges of climate change.

“In the face of the climate crisis, managing water resources has never been more urgent,” he says. “By quantifying uncertainties and understanding the risks of extreme events, we can build more resilient communities and protect both our environment and society.”

Forecasting the future

As the frequency and severity of climate-related disasters continues to rise, the need for better protection, mitigation and response will only increase.

It highlights the importance of Papalexiou’s work, as he says nature still hides many mysteries.

“I believe we’ve only scratched the surface in understanding these phenomena,” he says. “As the saying goes, ‘Prediction is difficult, especially for the future.’”

Papalexiou says “I will keep doing my best” in making highly probable predictions, with the additional hope of understanding the patterns that come with each disaster.